By James West
April 19, 2011
April 19, 2011
Q: What do CNBC, George Soros, Warren Buffet and every other mainstream investment commentator on the price of gold have in common for the last ten years?
A: They are all wrong.
All the time, every year, ten out of ten years in a row. If you continue to pay attention to such disinformation, you will lose money. Definitely. No question. Guaranteed.
Each and every year, their vapid comments on the future gold price prove to be complete bollocks, yet year after year, and day after day, millions of readers watchers and listeners tune in for another dose of horribly incorrect information.
These days, the number of perpetually inaccurate predictions forecasting an end to the gold boom are thoroughly drowned out by the now multitudinous voices screaming from the rooftops for gold to go much higher. About 90 percent of that is the herd mentality at work. Early predictions for $1,000 gold, which seemed extreme and outlandish just two years ago, turned out to be very conservative. So its easy now to lay claim to being “the one who predicted the gold bull market”.
Bandwagon riders aside, there are compelling reasons to support a much higher gold price, and more importantly, a narrowing of the ratio between the gold price and the silver price. One year ago, the silver to gold ratio was 63 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. Today that ratio is 35:1. Its fallen by nearly half in one year.
In terms of pure performance, whereas gold has delivered a solid gain of 26.51% in the course of the last year, silver has outshone gold spectacularly, turning in a gain of 123.55%, making it the commodity trade of the year by far. The effect of that performance is to dramatically alter the perception of investors in terms of its desirability as a precious metal. Its long been a psychological barrier to silver’s progress, in my opinion, that a precious metal could be had so cheap.
But as the prices of both monetary metals grows, and their price differentials narrow, investors want an idea of where the future is heading in terms of these prices. Can they continue to grow so dramatically in price, or is there a point at which their price appreciation curve will level out and become more incremental? Or, is there a point at this the upward price curves will plunge steeply downward? And at what point, if every, will the price curves of silver and gold converge? What exactly is the appropriate ratio of gold versus silver? Do we buy bullion, coins, ETF’s, Gold Funds, Senior Miners or Junior Explorers? Which is safest? Which is riskiest?
First lets consider the ratio question. If the ratio suggested in the title were to become reality, that would mean a ratio of only ten ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. If the ratio curve were to continue climbing in favour silver at the present rate, it would approach 10:1 within another year.
But if the ratio were to reflect numbers pegged to certain fundamental realities, then perhaps we could deduce a more rational price differential with better certainty. According to John Stephenson’s Little Book of Commodity Investing, there is 16 times more silver in the earth’s crust than gold.
So on that basis alone, the correct price ratio is arguably 16:1. Silver bulls like to point out that silver is unique among monetary metals because of its wide ranging industrial applications, as well as in photography and jewelry. As the silver price continues to consolidate its price differential with gold, it is likely that process modification and substitution will occur wherever possible in the manufacturing supply chain to replace silver, which will dampen industrial demand. Thanks to silver’s unique chemical attributes, however, that effect will be muted.
2009 statistics from the Silver Institute show that global supply of silver was more or less equal to the global demand for silver from all classes including manufacturing and bullion minting. Government stocks of silver are estimated to have fallen by 13.7 million ounces over the course of 2009, to reach their lowest levels in more than a decade. Russia again accounted for the bulk of government sales, with China and India essentially absent from the market in 2009. Regarding China, Gold Fields Mineral Services states that after years of heavy sales, its silver stocks have been reduced significantly.
If the silver ratio is heading to 16:1, that implies a near term price range of $90 – $100 per ounce.
If gold goes to $5,000 an ounce, and the silver/gold price ratio remains 16:1, there’s silver at $312.50 per ounce.
And what, pray tell, is coming down the pike to support a gold price of $5,000?
First and foremost, the United States dollar.
The whole global financial system is trapped in a situation whereby we have no choice but to permit the United States to continue counterfeiting money. There is no single political force or voice or even prospect with the knowledge and the power to put a stop to the insanity into which we continue to spiral on a daily basis. That means, despite the unanimous chorus from the financial media mainstream, which anesthetizes the human race in an effort to thwart violent protest by design, the fabrication of electronic dollars will continue apace. For years.
In terms of strict nominal value, that implies a proportional increase in the prices of, well, everything. Inflation is the direct outcome of monetary expansion in the absence of economic growth. Therefore, gold and silver will be direct beneficiaries of such policy.
At the same time, sovereign and large capital pool (LCP) investors in U.S. debt are seeking to exit their holdings of U.S. dollars, The world’s largest bond fund, PIMCO, and its acerbic chief Bill Gross, are now shorting the U.S. dollar. China has stated repeatedly that it will reduce its holdings of U.S. debt. This is sending a signal to the rest of the sovereign wealth and LCPs that the U.S. dollar should be abandoned. That means, when the convulsions that seize the global financial system, such as that of 2008, manifest themselves, investors will flee less and less to the U.S. dollar, and more and more to other currencies – especially gold and silver.
So not only does the price of gold appreciate in strictly nominal terms, but demand for it is growing even as it grows exponentially in price. That’s why, given this illogical yet nevertheless existing stupidity, the more expensive gold and silver get, the greater will be their demand as a replacement for U.S. dollar denominated safe haven asset classes.
The third major factor that is going to drive gold to $5,000 and silver through $300 is related to the first two. Governments, always reactive and never proactive, will eventually start to ratify gold and silver as official currency alternatives as a result of public pressure.
The decision by the people of Utah to do just that was big news recently, even though technically and legally, it always was legal tender in that state. It is this final legitimizing step by regional governments that will open the eyes of the otherwise hypnotized American public. For now, the move is painted as fringe by the idiotic mainstream, who are unwitting pawns for the financial services industry – U.S. Federal Reserve – U.S. Treasury trio of economic under-miners.
But contrary to global public perception, this has been a recurring theme in the United States economy, pretty much from day 1.
The Daily Astorian, a newspaper of the day in Astoria, Oregon, on May 9th, 1876 published a story the following of which is an excerpt:
The people of this country are tolerably familiar with depreciated money. The great mass of them have had nothing else for the last fourteen years. We are accustomed to depreciated Greenbacks, National Bank Notes, Nickels and Silver, and there are those living who can recall the time when Gold was worth less than Silver.
The biggest perpetrators of what we, the people, must soon designate as criminals, else suffer the continuing consequences of no jobs and no future, are the United States Federal Reserve, the United States Treasury, The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission, and the Securities Exchange Commission.
“Oh but wait,” say some. “The United States Federal Reserve is not a government body….its private.” And? The Federal Reserve is nothing more and nothing less than the off-balance sheet entity of the U.S. Treasury that permits the illegal fabrication of dollars out of thin air without prosecution. Of course this off-balance sheet entity is not an official government body. It was designed that way, exactly as Enron set up LJM L.P., to hide losses and perform sundry distasteful and illegal acts in an effort to support its parent entity.
When an entity is formed specifically to operate outside of the publicly elected offices of government, but is given dominion over the most important property of the voting public – its money – and when that entity acts in direct opposition to the interests of the public to whom it owes a fiduciary duty, then its status as government or private really becomes irrelevant. All that matters in terms of its identity is its treasonous and fraudulent activity.
The management of Enron went to jail for their larcenous culture of hiding from shareholders the true extent of their losses, and the illegal nature of their everyday operations. With a bit of luck and perseverance, the same fate will yet befall Bernanke, Paulson, Summers, Rubin, Geithner, Gensler, Shapiro and the rest of the Ivy league thieves. In the meantime, the best defense against their intentional destruction of the United States currency is selling dollars to buy gold for capital preservation and silver for low-risk capital appreciation.
The day will come when, instead of teaching that these leaders were nobly trying to ease the pain of financial forces beyond their control, today’s politicians will instead be accurately portrayed as naïve, negligent, and just plain stupid populists whose ignorance of real economic matters was exactly the ingredient necessary to permit the psychopathic and misanthropic banking community to form the financial policies of their governments. Unfortunately, the only ones likely to be alive by the time that happens are now in diapers.